{"id":8575,"date":"2023-08-31T12:59:46","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T12:59:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=8575"},"modified":"2023-08-31T12:59:48","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T12:59:48","slug":"dette-risque-de-refinancement-modere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=8575","title":{"rendered":"DETTE : Risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Le profil d’amortissement de la dette montre que le portefeuille de la dette est expos\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9, compte tenu de la maturit\u00e9 r\u00e9siduelle relativement courte des emprunts de la dette int\u00e9rieure. C’est ce qu’indique le bulletin statistique de la dette de l’administration centrale du Togo au 30 juin 2023 publi\u00e9 par le minist\u00e8re de l’\u00e9conomie et des finances.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le co\u00fbt du portefeuille de la dette existante, analys\u00e9 \u00e0 travers le taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat implicite, ressortirait \u00e0 4,33% \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2023 contre 4,15 % \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2022. Le co\u00fbt sur le march\u00e9 r\u00e9gional a augment\u00e9 en 2022 en ligne avec l’orientation de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Banque Centrale pour contenir les tensions inflationnistes. La dette int\u00e9rieure, domin\u00e9e par les titres publics, co\u00fbterait en moyenne 5,96%, soit au moins trois (3) fois plus cher que la dette ext\u00e9rieure (1,78%).<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u00ab La r\u00e9duction de ce co\u00fbt d\u00e9pendra de la capacit\u00e9 de l’Etat \u00e0 mobiliser, \u00e0 moyen \u00e0 long terme, les ressources concessionnelles. La charge d’int\u00e9r\u00eat repr\u00e9senterait 2,91 % du PIB. Elle serait de 2,44 % du PIB, pour la dette int\u00e9rieure, contre 0,47% du PIB pour la dette ext\u00e9rieure \u00bb,<\/em> fait-on savoir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La dette ext\u00e9rieure ressortirait avec une maturit\u00e9 moyenne de 8,76 ans. L’encours de la dette, arrivant \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023, repr\u00e9senterait 11,24% de l’ensemble du portefeuille de la dette, soit 7,57% du PIB. La part de la dette int\u00e9rieure, qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023, serait de 12,84%, contre 8,76% pour la dette ext\u00e9rieure. Le profil de maturit\u00e9 indique une forte concentration des \u00e9ch\u00e9ances au cours des cinq (05) prochaines ann\u00e9es, ce qui pourrait g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des pressions de refinancement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En ce qui concerne les risques li\u00e9s au portefeuille de la dette existante, le risque de refinancement est mesur\u00e9 \u00e0 travers trois indicateurs ; la maturit\u00e9 moyenne du portefeuille ; la proportion de dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance dans un an en pourcentage du PIB ; et la proportion de dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance dans un an en pourcentage de la dette totale. La maturit\u00e9 moyenne de l’ensemble du portefeuille serait de 6,31 ans \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2023, contre 6,66 ans \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Cet indicateur est influenc\u00e9 n\u00e9gativement par la maturit\u00e9 moyenne de la dette int\u00e9rieure, qui est ressortie \u00e0 4,72 ans en 2023, contre 5,64 ans en 2022. Cette baisse est due \u00e0 la pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence des investisseurs pour les titres publics de court et moyen terme, qui ont contraint l’Etat du Togo \u00e0 \u00e9mettre plus de bons du tr\u00e9sor et d’obligations assimilables du Tr\u00e9sor de moyen terme (3 et 5 ans) \u00bb,<\/em> renseigne-t-on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le risque de taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon le bulletin statistique de la dette de l’administration centrale du Togo au 30 juin 2023, le temps moyen de l’ensemble du portefeuille jusqu’\u00e0 la r\u00e9vision des taux est de 6,25 ans. Cet indicateur, relativement faible, est influenc\u00e9 par la dette int\u00e9rieure ayant un temps moyen de 4,64 ans. Le temps moyen de la dette ext\u00e9rieure est de 8,74 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’encours de la dette, dont le taux sera r\u00e9vis\u00e9 au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023, repr\u00e9senterait 14,62% de la dette totale. Cette dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance sur la p\u00e9riode, devrait toutefois \u00eatre refinanc\u00e9e \u00e0 de nouvelles conditions financi\u00e8res du march\u00e9, ce qui exposerait le portefeuille \u00e0 un risque de taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat. C’est le cas notamment de 18,14% de la dette int\u00e9rieure qui viendrait \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance en 2023. Le niveau de la dette \u00e0 taux variable dans le portefeuille est n\u00e9gligeable (0,18%), ce qui r\u00e9duit l’exposition du portefeuille aux fluctuations des taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eats.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Quant au risque de taux de change, au vu de la composition de l’encours, la dette publique est moins expos\u00e9e au risque de taux de change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En effet, il est compos\u00e9 de 82,49% de dettes libell\u00e9es en FCFA et de dette en Euro. Le portefeuille de la dette ext\u00e9rieure (39,03% de la dette totale) est tout de m\u00eame influenc\u00e9 par les fluctuations de certaines devises majeures, dont les proportions sont : 23,21% pour le dollar US et 9,83% pour le yuan renminbi (CNY). On note une proportion non n\u00e9gligeable de la dette ext\u00e9rieure libell\u00e9e en Euro (30,42%), qui est une devise non fluctuante vis-\u00e0-vis du FCFA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(In LE MEDIUM n\u00b0568 du 29 ao\u00fbt au 04 Septembre 2023)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

@macite.tg        <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mail : <\/em><\/strong>maciteinfo@gmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>; <\/em><\/strong>bawela1@gmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour vos annonces, (publi)reportages, etc., joignez nous au (00228)91515309\/79872224 <\/strong>www.macite.tg, L\u2019information, la bonne !<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le profil d’amortissement de la dette montre que le portefeuille de la dette est expos\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9, compte tenu de la maturit\u00e9 r\u00e9siduelle relativement courte des emprunts de la dette int\u00e9rieure. C’est ce qu’indique le bulletin statistique de la dette de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-finances"],"yoast_head":"\nDETTE : Risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=8575\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DETTE : Risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le profil d’amortissement de la dette montre que le portefeuille de la dette est expos\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9, compte tenu de la maturit\u00e9 r\u00e9siduelle relativement courte des emprunts de la dette int\u00e9rieure. 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