{"id":15521,"date":"2024-07-10T15:28:23","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T15:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=15521"},"modified":"2024-07-10T15:33:56","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T15:33:56","slug":"15521","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=15521","title":{"rendered":"TOGO \/ DETTE : Co\u00fbt et risques du portefeuille \u00e0 la fin 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Selon le rapport annuel de la dette publique au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 \u00e9tablit par le minist\u00e8re de l’\u00e9conomie et des finances, A fin d\u00e9cembre 2023, le niveau de dette du Togo par rapport au PIB est de 66,65% du PIB. Le profil d’amortissement de la dette montre que le portefeuille de la dette est expos\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque de refinancement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 compte tenu de la maturit\u00e9 r\u00e9siduelle relativement courte des emprunts de la dette int\u00e9rieure.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le co\u00fbt du portefeuille de la dette existante<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le co\u00fbt du portefeuille de la dette est analys\u00e9 \u00e0 travers le taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat implicite. Il ressort \u00e0 3,79% \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2023 contre 4,15% \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2022. Cette baisse du taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat implicite s’explique par l’encours de l’appui budg\u00e9taire de Ida de 150 millions de dollars Usd \u00e0 taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat z\u00e9ro.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

La dette int\u00e9rieure, domin\u00e9e par les titres publics, co\u00fbte en moyenne 5,22% contre 1,52% pour la dette ext\u00e9rieure. La charge d’int\u00e9r\u00eat repr\u00e9sente 2,53% du Pib. Elle est de 2,14% du Pib pour la dette int\u00e9rieure contre 0,39% du Pi pour la dette ext\u00e9rieure. La r\u00e9duction du co\u00fbt de la dette d\u00e9pendra de la capacit\u00e9 de l’Etat \u00e0 mobiliser les ressources concessionnelles sur le moyen terme et le long terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le risque de refinancement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le risque de refinancement est mesur\u00e9 \u00e0 travers trois indicateurs : la maturit\u00e9 moyenne du portefeuille ; la proportion de dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance dans un an en pourcentage du Pib ; et la proportion de dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance dans un an en pourcentage de la dette totale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La maturit\u00e9 moyenne de l’ensemble du portefeuille ressort \u00e0 6,45 ans \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2023 contre 6,66 ans \u00e0 fin d\u00e9cembre 2022. Cet indicateur est influenc\u00e9 positivement par la dette ext\u00e9rieure ayant une maturit\u00e9 moyenne de 8,93 ans. La maturit\u00e9 moyenne de la dette int\u00e9rieure, quant \u00e0 elle, est de 4,88 ans en 2023 contre 5,64 ans en 2022. Cette baisse est due \u00e0 la pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence des investisseurs pour les titres publics de court terme qui ont contraint l’Etat togolais \u00e0 \u00e9mettre plus de bons du tr\u00e9sor au cours de l’ann\u00e9e 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

L’encours de la dette arrivant \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 repr\u00e9sente 12,20% de l’ensemble du portefeuille de la dette, soit 8,15% du Pib. La part de la dette int\u00e9rieure qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 est de 15,13% contre 7,56% pour la dette ext\u00e9rieure. Le profil de maturit\u00e9 indique une forte concentration des \u00e9ch\u00e9ances au cours des trois (03) prochaines ann\u00e9es, ce qui pourrait g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des pressions de tr\u00e9sorerie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le risque de taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le temps moyen de l’ensemble du portefeuille jusqu’\u00e0 la r\u00e9vision des taux est de 6,43 ans. Cet indicateur relativement faible est influenc\u00e9 par la dette int\u00e9rieure ayant un temps moyen de 4,87 ans. Le temps moyen de la dette ext\u00e9rieure est de 8,90 ans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L’encours de la dette dont le taux sera r\u00e9vis\u00e9 au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 repr\u00e9sente 12,54% de la dette totale. Cette dette qui arrive \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance sur la p\u00e9riode doit toutefois \u00eatre refinanc\u00e9e \u00e0 de nouvelles conditions financi\u00e8res du march\u00e9, ce qui expose le portefeuille \u00e0 un risque de taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat. C’est le cas notamment de 15,45% de la dette int\u00e9rieure \u00e0 fin en 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Le niveau de la dette \u00e0 taux variable dans le portefeuille est n\u00e9gligeable (0,16%), ce qui r\u00e9duit l’exposition du portefeuille aux fluctuations des taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le risque de taux de change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au vu de la composition de l’encours, la dette publique est moins expos\u00e9e au risque de taux de change. En effet, il est compos\u00e9 de 71,30% de dettes libell\u00e9es en Fcfa et 14,95% en Euro. Le portefeuille de la dette ext\u00e9rieure (38,61% de la dette totale) est tout de m\u00eame influenc\u00e9 par les fluctuations de certaines devises majeures ((14,04% pour le dollar US et 9,38% pour le yuan renminbi (Cny)). On note une proportion importante de la dette ext\u00e9rieure libell\u00e9e en Euro (38,72%) qui est une devise non fluctuante vis-\u00e0-vis du Fcfa. Il faut signaler \u00e9galement que tous les concours du FMI en Dts dont l’encours repr\u00e9sente 25,67% de la dette ext\u00e9rieure n’ont pas d’effet sur le taux de change en raison de l’accord de contrepartie sign\u00e9 entre la Banque Centrale et l’Etat.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A en croire le Gouvernement, les efforts vont se poursuivre pour maintenir la dette ext\u00e9rieure \u00e0 un risque mod\u00e9r\u00e9 de surendettement avec des marges cons\u00e9quentes pour absorber les chocs et ramener le risque de surendettement global \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 un risque de surendettement global mod\u00e9r\u00e9 en 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                 Ali Samba (In LE MEDIUM n\u00b0613 du 09 au 15 Juillet 2024)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

@macite.tg        <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

E-mail : <\/em><\/strong>maciteinfo@gmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a>; <\/em><\/strong>bawela1@gmail.com<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour vos annonces, (publi)reportages, etc., joignez-nous au (00228)91515309\/79872224 <\/strong>www.macite.tg, L\u2019information, la bonne !<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Selon le rapport annuel de la dette publique au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 \u00e9tablit par le minist\u00e8re de l’\u00e9conomie et des finances, A fin d\u00e9cembre 2023, le niveau de dette du Togo par rapport au PIB est de 66,65% du PIB. Le profil d’amortissement de la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite","category-economie"],"a3_pvc":{"activated":false,"total_views":0,"today_views":0},"yoast_head":"\nTOGO \/ DETTE : Co\u00fbt et risques du portefeuille \u00e0 la fin 2023 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/macite.tg\/?p=15521\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TOGO \/ DETTE : Co\u00fbt et risques du portefeuille \u00e0 la fin 2023 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Selon le rapport annuel de la dette publique au 31 d\u00e9cembre 2023 \u00e9tablit par le minist\u00e8re de l’\u00e9conomie et des finances, A fin d\u00e9cembre 2023, le niveau de dette du Togo par rapport au PIB est de 66,65% du PIB. 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